How to Analyze the Widening Gender Gap in Math Achievement Using TIMSS Data

Introduction

International math assessments reveal a troubling reversal: after years of progress, girls' math performance is slipping relative to boys, especially post-pandemic. The latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) data shows that in 2023, fourth-grade boys outperformed girls in most participating countries, and among eighth-graders, the gender gap has widened dramatically since 2019. This guide walks you through the key steps to understand and interpret these trends using the TIMSS report, so you can identify where interventions are needed most.

What You Need

• Access to the full TIMSS 2023 report (available from the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement and UNESCO)
• Basic knowledge of statistical measures (e.g., proficiency levels, gender gaps, percentages)
• A spreadsheet or data analysis tool for comparing country-level results
• Background on pre-pandemic math equity trends (e.g., 2015 and 2019 TIMSS data)
• Awareness of education disruption contexts (e.g., school closure durations per country)

Step-by-Step Guide

Step 1: Locate the TIMSS Data for Fourth and Eighth Grades

Start by downloading the TIMSS 2023 results for math achievement. Focus on the fourth-grade and eighth-grade datasets separately. The report organizes data by country and territory, with breakdowns by gender. You’ll find overall scores, proficiency levels (e.g., advanced, high, intermediate, low, below low), and gender gap indicators. Note that the 2023 wave is the first post-pandemic measurement, making it critical for comparison.

Step 2: Compare Gender Performance at the Advanced Level

Look for the share of students reaching the advanced benchmark in math. The TIMSS report shows that among fourth-graders, 85% of countries had a gender gap favoring boys at this top tier. For eighth grade, over half of the countries showed an advanced-level advantage for boys, while none favored girls in either grade. Highlight these regions – they indicate where the most talented girls are being left behind.

Step 3: Examine the Basic Proficiency Gap

Now, turn to the group of students who fail to reach basic proficiency. The data reveals that the share of regions with a gender gap among low-performing fourth-graders is rising, and most of those regions have more girls struggling. Among eighth-graders, although the overall gender gap in underperformance is shrinking, the proportion of countries where girls dominate the low-performing group has actually spiked. Document these shifts to understand which grades and regions need urgent support.

Step 4: Compare Pre- and Post-Pandemic Trends (2019 vs. 2023)

To measure the impact of COVID-19, overlay the 2019 TIMSS data with the 2023 results. Matthias Eck of UNESCO notes that prior to the pandemic, girls were catching up to boys in many countries. But in the latest data, the gap is widening to the detriment of girls. Calculate the change in gender gap size for each country – particularly in eighth grade, where the rate of boys outscoring girls has increased exponentially since 2019. Use line graphs or delta columns to visualize the reversal.

Step 5: Correlate School Closure Duration with Learning Loss

One hypothesis in the report is that longer school closures during the pandemic may have exacerbated existing disparities. For each country, note the length of time schools were fully or partially closed (data often provided by UNESCO or the World Bank). Cross-reference this with the change in the gender gap. Countries with prolonged closures often show greater learning loss for girls, especially those already at risk. This step helps isolate pandemic-related effects from other factors.

Step 6: Identify At-Risk Subgroups

Dive deeper into the data to see if certain subgroups of girls – for example, those from low-income homes, rural areas, or minority backgrounds – are disproportionately affected. While TIMSS provides overall gender breakdowns, some national reports include additional demographic slices. Look for patterns: the report’s authors caution that the pandemic likely reduced learning opportunities for girls already at risk of low achievement. Flag any data showing that vulnerable girls lost more ground than their peers.

Step 7: Draw Conclusions and Plan Interventions

Synthesize your findings: identify which grades and countries have the widest gaps, both at the top and bottom of the achievement spectrum. The data suggests that the gender gap in math is not just about who excels, but also who fails to meet basic standards – and that girls are now more likely to be in the failing group. Use this evidence to advocate for targeted programs, such as after-school math clubs for girls, teacher training on gender bias, or policies that keep schools open equitably during crises.

Tips for Effective Analysis

• Context matters: Not all countries had the same school closure policies. Always pair TIMSS data with local reports to avoid overgeneralizing.
• Look beyond averages: The overall gender gap can mask large disparities in the tails of the distribution (advanced and below basic). Focus on those extremes.
• Collaborate with educators: Share your findings with math teachers and school administrators. They can provide on-the-ground insights into why girls’ confidence and performance may have slipped.
• Keep monitoring: The next TIMSS cycle (2027) will show whether the post-pandemic gap continues to widen or if recovery efforts are working. Use your baseline data now to track progress.
• Be cautious with causality: The TIMSS data is correlational. Eck himself stresses that the link between school closures and girls’ math performance is a hypothesis, not proven causation. Treat it as a strong signal, not a definitive cause.

By following these steps, you can turn the alarming TIMSS findings into actionable insights. The report is a call to action: without dedicated efforts, the hard-won gains in math equity for girls could continue to slip away.